Contour Grid was a technology thought experiment that I mulled over for about 6 months in the fall/winter of 2021. It involved researching, reaching-out, and calculating a solution to climate change.
The Reason
Climate change is a real problem that we must solve. Not only does climate change imperil the beauty of nature, but also the stability of the ecosystem that we all depend on. This passage isn’t going to talk about the science of climate change (but if you do want info go here: https://www.ipcc.ch/ ), but rather try and discuss what barriers lie in the way of reaching a carbon negative budget.
The Conundrum
In order to avert the worst effects of climate change the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has settled on a warming limit of 1.5 degrees Celsius. There is argument and discussion if this limit is truly low enough to mitigate the worst effects of climate change, but one thing is undisputed: we will not meet this goal. Why is this the case? What limits the world’s ability to do this transformation?
Hydrocarbons – 23000 TWhr per year
The difficulty of transforming our energy consumption away from fossil fuel sources can be narrowed down into a few reasons:
- Physical reasons: Hydrocarbon fuels are both energy dense (J/m3) and energy rich (J/kg).
- Value reasons: World economies have trillions of dollars of built hydrocarbon infrastructure/reserves.
- Moral reasons: Hydrocarbon fuels utilize current technology that can reduce poverty today.
The reasons listed above is why we see fossil fuel uses in so many different aspects of life and overall there are multiple different sectors that must be decarbonized. I believe the most important sector to focus on is electricity because it is the keystone for other sectors decarbonization strategy. To keep in mind the scale of the problem: the world utilized 23000 TWhr of energy in 2018.
The Grid
The grid’s around the world are magnificent machines that delicately balance the generation, distribution, and consumption of electrical power across vast distances. What’s very important to note about how this machine works is that 99% of the energy produced is consumed instantly, and deviations from this operating paradigm has vast implications on the stability of the grid. What this means it that the grid evolved with the idea that generation sources are dispatchable and can be called upon to increase or decrease their power levels. Unfortunately non-carbon sources such as wind and solar cannot do this.
What has been very interesting to note is that despite renewable energy sources non-dispatchable nature it has amazingly become the cheapest way to add new generation capability to the grid. What this means is that grid operators must find new ways to run a grid with these integrated assets.
A Solution
As more renewable systems are integrated a correspondingly equal/greater number of
The Math
Here’s the excel sheet!
Osi Van Dessel 